TY - JOUR
T1 - Agricultural production and food consumption in China: A long-term projection
AU - Sheng, Yu
AU - Song, Ligang
PY - 2019
Y1 - 2019
N2 - This paper uses a multi-country and multi-product partial equilibrium model to forecast food supply and demand in China and its impact on food trade in 2050. The model endogenises shifting consumption preferences due to China's demographic changes and real incomes growth caused by ongoing urbanisation and industrialisation. We show that total food demand in China is to increase by 33% by 2050 and its structure will shift towards more luxurious goods, away from necessities. While improved productivity growth will enable domestic production to rise, imports are still likely to play an important role in reducing the "quality" gap in future Chinese food demand.
AB - This paper uses a multi-country and multi-product partial equilibrium model to forecast food supply and demand in China and its impact on food trade in 2050. The model endogenises shifting consumption preferences due to China's demographic changes and real incomes growth caused by ongoing urbanisation and industrialisation. We show that total food demand in China is to increase by 33% by 2050 and its structure will shift towards more luxurious goods, away from necessities. While improved productivity growth will enable domestic production to rise, imports are still likely to play an important role in reducing the "quality" gap in future Chinese food demand.
U2 - 10.1016/j.chieco.2018.08.006
DO - 10.1016/j.chieco.2018.08.006
M3 - Article
SN - 1043-951X
VL - 53
SP - 15
EP - 29
JO - China Economic Review
JF - China Economic Review
ER -