Agricultural production and food consumption in China: A long-term projection

Yu Sheng, Ligang Song

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    This paper uses a multi-country and multi-product partial equilibrium model to forecast food supply and demand in China and its impact on food trade in 2050. The model endogenises shifting consumption preferences due to China's demographic changes and real incomes growth caused by ongoing urbanisation and industrialisation. We show that total food demand in China is to increase by 33% by 2050 and its structure will shift towards more luxurious goods, away from necessities. While improved productivity growth will enable domestic production to rise, imports are still likely to play an important role in reducing the "quality" gap in future Chinese food demand.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)15-29
    JournalChina Economic Review
    Volume53
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2019

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