Asia's insecurity

Glittering visions of a forthcoming 'Asian century' have given way to Asian insecurity. Since mid-1997, security planners have been confounded by three events: the Asian economic crisis; the end of President Suharto's regime in Indonesia; and the development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles by India, Pakistan and North Korea. There is clear potential for more strategic turbulence: Indonesia's disintegration, a nuclear miscalculation in South Asia, China's adoption of a more aggressive stance, or conflict on the Korean Peninsula. Given these risks and uncertainties, too many governments continue to rely on straight-line extrapolations of Asia's strategic future. Such analysis demonstrably failed to predict the economic crisis; strategic planners should spend more time preparing for 'alternative strategic futures'.