Assessing biophysical and socio-economic impacts of climate change on regional avian biodiversity

Simon Kapitza, Van Pham, Thomas Kompas, Nick Golding, Natasha Cadenhead, Payal Bal, Brendan Wintle

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle


    Climate change threatens biodiversity directly by influencing biophysical variables that drive species’ geographic distributions and indirectly through socio-economic changes that influence land use patterns, driven by global consumption, production and climate. To date, no detailed analyses have been produced that assess the relative importance of, or interaction between, these direct and indirect climate change impacts on biodiversity at large scales. Here, we apply a new integrated modelling framework to quantify the relative influence of biophysical and socio-economically mediated impacts on avian species in Vietnam and Australia and we find that socio-economically mediated impacts on suitable ranges are largely outweighed by biophysical impacts. However, by translating economic futures and shocks into spatially explicit predictions of biodiversity change, we now have the power to analyse in a consistent way outcomes for nature and people of any change to policy, regulation, trading conditions or consumption trend at any scale from sub-national to global.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)1-10
    JournalScientific Reports
    Issue number1
    Publication statusPublished - 2021


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