Abstract
ASEAN is in danger of becoming marginalized as East Asian security becomes increasingly shaped by such volatile flashpoints as a nuclear North Korea and a South China Sea increasingly dominated by quarrels over sovereignty and maritime security.
• Accordingly, the notion of “ASEAN centrality†is now being seriously challenged and is unlikely to prevail against the growing bipolar security environment shaped by China and the United States.
• ASEAN and other Asia-Pacific states could gravitate toward one of five alternative order-building scenarios:
(i) A Sino-American condominium that defines and accepts each other’s geopolitical sphere of influence;
(ii) The replacement or substantial revision of the United States’ bilateral alliance system with the expansion of multilateral norms and instrumentalities;
(iii) The gradual predominance of an “Asia for Asians†concept led by China but endorsed by a substantial number of Southeast Asian states;
(iv) Effective balancing and hedging by smaller states and “middle powersâ€, leading to eventual great power acceptance of a regional power equilibrium;
(v) An intensification of regional “community building†via an amorphous but wide-ranging series of economic, ideological and strategic compromises to make war unthinkable and to strengthen regional interdependence.
• However, none of these five scenarios is likely to predominate in a literal sense. Instead, the “realist†explanation for understanding 16-1518 01 Trends_2016-10.indd 7 12/7/16 2:21 PM security in the region is the most accurate forecast for understanding
an East Asian security environment that is becoming increasingly disorderly.
• ASEAN can still play a constructive — if not central — role in shaping East Asia’s strategic environment by working with China and the United States to strengthen confidence-building in regional security politics and to encourage their respect for strategic constraint.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 1-33 |
Journal | Trends in Southeast Asia |
Volume | 2016 |
Issue number | 10 |
Publication status | Published - 2015 |