BLOG - A Tough Year for China in the South China Sea

Beijing is likely to face several challenges in its policy towards the South China Sea, from US military patrols to a possible new stance from Taiwan. South China Sea tension has been at the centre of AsiaPacific regional politics since 2009. However, since 2015, a new set of strategic dynamics has dominated regional tensions. In 2016, China is expected to face four challenges in its policy towards the South China Sea—how it should respond to America’s freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs); deal with a US-centred regional coalition that wants to curtail China’s positions; respond to the outcome of an international arbitration case initiated by the Philippines; and respond to a possible new stance from Taiwan’s new leadership of the pro-independence Tsai Ingwen on the claims to the South China Sea.