China aims for net-zero carbon emissions by 2060 and an emission peak before 2030. This will reduce its consumption of coal forpower generation and steelmaking. Simultaneously, China aims for improved energy security, primarily with expanded domesticcoal production and transport infrastructure. We analyze effectsof both these pressures on Chinese coal imports, with a purposebuilt model of China's coal sector with installation-level detail, representing roughly a 300-fold increase in granularity versus earliermodels. We find that reduced Chinese coal consumption affectsseaborne imports much more strongly than domestic supply. Recentexpansions of rail and port capacities, which reduce the costs of getting domestic coal to southern coastal provinces, will further reducethe demand for seaborne thermal coal and amplify the effect of decarbonization on coal imports. Seaborne coking coal imports are also likely to fall because of the expanded supply of cheap and high-quality coking coal from neighboring Mongolia.
|Publication status||Published - 2022|