China's Fiscal Stimulus and the Recession Australia Never Had: Is a Growth Slowdown Now Inevitable?

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    China's timely and well-targeted two-year fiscal stimulus was particularly effective in stimulating growth in Australia's commodity exports. Using a constructed series of export volumes to China, this paper finds that the post-stimulus GDP growth contribution from export volumes to China is significant. Had growth in export volumes to China been commensurate with pre-stimulus rates, Australia would have experienced three consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth — a technical recession. China's gradual and uniquely revenue-based unwinding of fiscal stimulus reduces the risk to Australia of an imminent growth slowdown.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)23-34
    JournalAgenda: A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform
    Volume18
    Issue number1
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2011

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