TY - JOUR
T1 - China's Fiscal Stimulus and the Recession Australia Never Had: Is a Growth Slowdown Now Inevitable?
AU - Day, Creina
PY - 2011
Y1 - 2011
N2 - China's timely and well-targeted two-year fiscal stimulus was particularly effective in stimulating growth in Australia's commodity exports. Using a constructed series of export volumes to China, this paper finds that the post-stimulus GDP growth contribution from export volumes to China is significant. Had growth in export volumes to China been commensurate with pre-stimulus rates, Australia would have experienced three consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth — a technical recession. China's gradual and uniquely revenue-based unwinding of fiscal stimulus reduces the risk to Australia of an imminent growth slowdown.
AB - China's timely and well-targeted two-year fiscal stimulus was particularly effective in stimulating growth in Australia's commodity exports. Using a constructed series of export volumes to China, this paper finds that the post-stimulus GDP growth contribution from export volumes to China is significant. Had growth in export volumes to China been commensurate with pre-stimulus rates, Australia would have experienced three consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth — a technical recession. China's gradual and uniquely revenue-based unwinding of fiscal stimulus reduces the risk to Australia of an imminent growth slowdown.
U2 - 10.22459/AG.18.01.2011.03
DO - 10.22459/AG.18.01.2011.03
M3 - Article
VL - 18
SP - 23
EP - 34
JO - Agenda: A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform
JF - Agenda: A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform
IS - 1
ER -