Chinese Industrialisation: Path Dependence and the Transition to a New Model

Huw McKay, Ligang Song

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter


    China�s economic structure can be characterised as both over-industrialised and under-urbanised relative to its level of income per head. Further, for such a large economy, it is highly export oriented. The design of any new growth model will need to respect these major structural legacies. The �overindustrialised� assessment reflects a high proportion of secondary activity in gross value added relative to its peers; and the under-urbanised assessment reflects the fact that the policy framework has prevented internal rural�urban migration from progressing at the rate at which push and pull motivations alone would have predicted. Furthermore, the absorptive capabilities of the urban population are diminished by the underprivileged position of the migrant worker cohort. China thus has both a considerable overhang of industrial capacity and considerable latent demand for further urbanisation, alongside huge potential for generating greater benefits from the degree of urbanisation already achieved.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationChina: A New Model for Growth and Development
    Editors Ross Garnaut, Cai Fang and Ligang Song
    Place of PublicationCanberra
    PublisherANU ePress
    ISBN (Print)9781921666483
    Publication statusPublished - 2013


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