Climate change and food security to 2030: a global economy-wide perspective

Ernesto Valenzuela, Kym Anderson

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    The effects of climate change on agriculture raise major food security concerns. We use a global economy-wide model to assess the effects on farm product prices of expected yield changes. Also modelled is an expected adverse effect of higher temperatures and humidity in the tropics on the productivity of unskilled workers in developing countries. Given the degrees of uncertainty about plausible effects of climate change, our modelling accounts for a range of yield productivity and labor shocks. The results entail consequences for international agricultural prices, national food consumption, self sufficiency, net farm income and economic welfare.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)29-58
    JournalEconomia Agraria y Recursos Naturales (Spanish Association of Agricultural Economics)
    Volume11
    Issue number1
    Publication statusPublished - 2011

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