Future fertility in low fertility countries

Stuart Basten, Tomáš Sobotka, Kryštof Zeman, Mohammad Abbasi Shavazi, Mohammad Abbasi Shavazi, Alicia Adsera, Jan Van Bavel, Caroline Berghammer, Minja Kim Choe, Tomas Frejka, Henri Leridon, Melinda Mills, S. Philip Morgan, Ronald Rindfuss, Louis Rosero-Bixby, Anna Rotkirch, Warren C. Sanderson, Maria Rita Testa, Olivier Thévenon, Zhongwei Zhao

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

    Abstract

    This chapter concerns countries with currently low fertility. It presents and justifies assumptions for future fertility trajectories based on an overview of recent fertility changes in major low-fertility regions, a discussion of theoretical arguments, a review of factors contributing to fertility change and variation during the late phases of demographic transition, a global survey of experts, and an invited meeting of experts. The survey contains 184 expert assessments with forecasts of period total fertility rates in 2030 and 2050, and substantive assessments of the validity and potential impact on fertility of 46 possible fertility-influencing factors. Invited experts participating in a meeting in Vienna in December 2011 helped transform these survey results into the scenarios that informed the projections reported in this book.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationWorld Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century
    Editors Wolfgang Lutz, William P. Butz and Samir KC
    Place of PublicationOxford
    PublisherOxford University Press
    Pages39-146
    EditionFirst
    ISBN (Print)9780198703167
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2014

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