Identifying Urban Flashpoints: A Delphi-Derived Model for Scoring Cities' Vulnerability to Large-Scale Unrest

Christopher Paul, Russell Glenn, Beth Grill, Megan P. Mckernan, Barbara Raymond, Matt Stafford, Horacio R. Trujillo

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    Although great strides have been made toward forecasting state-level instability, little progress has been made toward the prediction of outbreaks of urban unrest. This article presents a method for the assessment of cities' vulnerability to large-scale urban unrest. Forty-five factors correlated with urban unrest are identified and weighted by an expert panel. Based on expert elicitation through an iterative Delphi exercise, the explicitly methodological discussion describes both the process and the resulting assessment framework. Results include a tool that will allow users to rank cities on their vulnerability to large-scale urban unrest.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)1032-1051
    JournalStudies in Conflict and Terrorism
    Volume31
    Issue number11
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2008

    Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Identifying Urban Flashpoints: A Delphi-Derived Model for Scoring Cities' Vulnerability to Large-Scale Unrest'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

    Cite this