TY - JOUR
T1 - Industry in a net-zero emissions world: New mitigation pathways, new supply chains, modelling needs and policy implications
AU - Bataille, Chris
AU - Nilsson, Lars
AU - Jotzo, Frank
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - The objective implicit in the Paris Agreement, net-zero emissions around mid-century, has transformed the
debate about heavy industry decarbonisation. Prior to Paris, the iron and steel, cement and concrete, chemicals,
and other materials sectors were expected to reduce absolute emissions by perhaps half by 2050, through
measures like energy efficiency, biofuels and carbon capture and storage. Global net-zero emissions means that
these industries face far deeper transformation and potentially costly offsetting. It is also becoming clear,
however, that very low emissions in heavy industry are technically possible using a spectrum of new options,
including demand management, materials efficiency, and direct and green hydrogen-based electrification of
primary materials production, facilitated by the falling cost of renewable electricity. Very low emissions pro-
duction chains mean changes to the location of the world’s heavy industry, including splitting processes into
components to allow use of large-scale low-cost renewable energy or access to geological CO2 storage, with
implications for trade. Existing models used for decarbonisation analysis typically do not represent the detail
necessary for a full understanding of the range of mitigation options. Better representation of industry in systems
modelling, along with analysis and learning about policy options and sequencing as industry transformations
unfold, will be important for reaching net-zero and net-negative emissions in cost-effective and just ways. Key
options, implications for the geography of heavy industry, and implications for systems modelling and policy are
outlined here
AB - The objective implicit in the Paris Agreement, net-zero emissions around mid-century, has transformed the
debate about heavy industry decarbonisation. Prior to Paris, the iron and steel, cement and concrete, chemicals,
and other materials sectors were expected to reduce absolute emissions by perhaps half by 2050, through
measures like energy efficiency, biofuels and carbon capture and storage. Global net-zero emissions means that
these industries face far deeper transformation and potentially costly offsetting. It is also becoming clear,
however, that very low emissions in heavy industry are technically possible using a spectrum of new options,
including demand management, materials efficiency, and direct and green hydrogen-based electrification of
primary materials production, facilitated by the falling cost of renewable electricity. Very low emissions pro-
duction chains mean changes to the location of the world’s heavy industry, including splitting processes into
components to allow use of large-scale low-cost renewable energy or access to geological CO2 storage, with
implications for trade. Existing models used for decarbonisation analysis typically do not represent the detail
necessary for a full understanding of the range of mitigation options. Better representation of industry in systems
modelling, along with analysis and learning about policy options and sequencing as industry transformations
unfold, will be important for reaching net-zero and net-negative emissions in cost-effective and just ways. Key
options, implications for the geography of heavy industry, and implications for systems modelling and policy are
outlined here
U2 - 10.1016/j.egycc.2021.100059
DO - 10.1016/j.egycc.2021.100059
M3 - Article
VL - 2
SP - 1
EP - 6
JO - Energy and Climate Change
JF - Energy and Climate Change
ER -