International Transmission of the People's Bank of China's Balance Sheet Expansion

Yiping Huang, Peichu Xie, Jiao Wang

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    The People's Bank of China's (PBoC) balance sheet expanded more dramatically than any of its major international counterparts during the past decade. The main contribution to this expansion was the rapid accumulation of the central bank's foreign assets, as a result of foreign exchange market intervention. In this paper, we examine the possible international transmission of this expansion by analyzing monthly data for China and 15 other countries over the period 2000-2012. Impulse response analysis based on vector autoregression modeling suggests that the PBoC's balance sheet expansion has greater impacts on developing than on developed countries. So far the influences appear to be dominated by "trade channels" instead of "financial channels," possibly due to China's capital account controls. However, the impacts of the PBoC's balance sheet expansion on other countries' interest rates, exchange rates, and stock market prices could strengthen significantly in the coming years as China's economic scale grows and its capital account opens up.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)276-296
    JournalAsian Economic Policy Review
    Volume9
    Issue number2
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2014

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