Lessons from the rise and fall of Chinese peer-to-peer lending

This paper reviews the development and assesses the future of peer-to-peer (P2P) lending in China. Chinese P2P lending has expanded by a factor of 60 over the 4 years from 2013 to 2017. Consequently, it is now much greater, both in absolute terms and relative to the size of the economy, than in any other country. The industry though has been plagued by problematic often fraudulent business models in what was, until 2015, effectively a regulatory vacuum. A strict new regulatory regime is currently being introduced. However, the introduction of the strict new regulatory regime, especially the requirements on capital and registration are substantially reducing the volume of P2P lending. We consider the future of P2P lending concluding it is facing substantial uncertainties.