Macroeconomic indicators--accelerating growth despite shocks

In 2012/13 India’s annual real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was 5.6%. This accelerated to 6.6% in 2013/14, 7.2% in 2014/15 and 7.6% in 2015/16. Estimates by several agencies including the Indian Ministry of Finance, the World Bank and others have forecast real GDP growth in 2016/17 to be in excess of 7.6%, yet below India’s current annual growth potential of 8%–10%. This data is as per the new series being used by the Central Statistical Organization of India using 2011/12 as the base year. Growth of gross value added in the respective years from 2012/13 to 2015/16 was 5.4%, 6.3%, 7.1% and 7.3%. Real per head GDP in these same years was Rs 74,712, Rs 78.653, Rs 83,285 and Rs 88,466, giving annual real per head GDP growth rates of 4.3%, 5.2%, 5.9% and 6.2%, respectively. This is a healthy growth trend, especially against the backdrop of slowing global growth. (The World Economic Outlook published by the International Monetary Fund—IMF—in April 2016 forecast global growth at 3.2% in 2016, down 0.2% from its January 2016 forecast of 3.4%.) Another point worth noting is that since 2014 actual real GDP growth rates in India have exceeded IMF projections.