Multilevel analysis of factors effecting first birth timing in Iran

The purpose of this paper is to identify factors that can influence the marriage interval to first birth. Using the 2000 Iran Demographic and Health Survey (IDHS) and survival analysis in combination with multilevel analysis, this paper examines determine macro and individual level factors associated with risk of first birth. According to findings, the first birth timing has mostly been affected by individual-level characteristics such as educational attainment and the age of marriage. The results of multilevel analysis confirm significant variation in risk of first birth within five years of marriage in provincial level. The observed difference between the provinces is not by the accident and it is a function of macro-level variables. However the macro level factors such as total fertility rate, prevalence of contraceptive use and female literacy rate do not explain differentials observed neither at the provincial level, nor individual level.