Optimal surveillance against foot-and-mouth disease: the case of bulk milk testing in Australia

Thomas Kompas, Van Pham, Hoa Nguyen, Iain East, Sharon Roche, Graeme Garner

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle


    Previous foot-and-mouth disease (FMD)outbreaks and simulation-based analyses suggest substantial payoffs from detecting an incursion early. However, no economic measures for early detection have been analysed in an optimising framework. We investigate the use of bulk milk testing (BMT) for active surveillance against an FMD incursion in Australia. We find that BMT can be justified, but only when the FMD entry probability is sufficiently high or the cost of BMT is low. However, BMT is well suited for post-outbreak surveillance, to shorten the length of time and size of an epidemic and to facilitate an earlier return to market.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)515-538
    JournalAustralian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
    Issue number4
    Publication statusPublished - 2017

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