TY - JOUR
T1 - Policy Uncertainty about Australia's Carbon Price: Expert Survey Results and Implications for Investment
AU - Jotzo, Frank
AU - Tim, Jordan
AU - Fabian, Nathan
PY - 2012
Y1 - 2012
N2 - Australia's carbon-pricing policy remains in doubt due to a lack of bipartisan political support. A survey of Australian-based carbon-pricing experts demonstrates profound policy uncertainty: 40 per cent of respondents expect the current carbon-pricing mechanism to be repealed, but 80 per cent expect that there will be a carbon price in 2020. The forward price curve is U-shaped and has great variance, with the 60 per cent confidence interval spanning from zero to A$25/t in 2020. Carbon policy uncertainty causes large excess costs in Australia's energy sector and may result in delay and diversion of investment.
AB - Australia's carbon-pricing policy remains in doubt due to a lack of bipartisan political support. A survey of Australian-based carbon-pricing experts demonstrates profound policy uncertainty: 40 per cent of respondents expect the current carbon-pricing mechanism to be repealed, but 80 per cent expect that there will be a carbon price in 2020. The forward price curve is U-shaped and has great variance, with the 60 per cent confidence interval spanning from zero to A$25/t in 2020. Carbon policy uncertainty causes large excess costs in Australia's energy sector and may result in delay and diversion of investment.
U2 - 10.1111/j.1467-8462.2012.00709.x
DO - 10.1111/j.1467-8462.2012.00709.x
M3 - Article
VL - 45
SP - 395
EP - 409
JO - The Australian Economic Review
JF - The Australian Economic Review
IS - 4
ER -