Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes

A.-L. Daniau; P.J. Bartlein; S. P. Harrison; I. Colin Prentice; S Brewer; Pierre Friedlingstein; T I Harrison-Prentice; J Inoue; K Izumi; J R Marlon; Janelle Stevenson; Simon Haberle; Geoffrey Hope

doi:10.1029/2011GB004249

Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes

A.-L. Daniau, P.J. Bartlein, S. P. Harrison, I. Colin Prentice, S Brewer, Pierre Friedlingstein, T I Harrison-Prentice, J Inoue, K Izumi, J R Marlon, Janelle Stevenson, Simon Haberle, Geoffrey Hope

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Abstract

Climate is an important control on biomass burning, but the sensitivity of fire to changes in temperature and moisture balance has not been quantified. We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo- fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote-sensing observations of month-by-month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.

Original language	English
Journal	Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Volume	26
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GB004249
Publication status	Published - 2012

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10.1029/2011GB004249

http://hdl.handle.net/1885/68592

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@article{1e831233749a455687ef5143fc027706,

title = "Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes",

abstract = "Climate is an important control on biomass burning, but the sensitivity of fire to changes in temperature and moisture balance has not been quantified. We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo- fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote-sensing observations of month-by-month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.",

author = "A.-L. Daniau and P.J. Bartlein and Harrison, {S. P.} and Prentice, {I. Colin} and S Brewer and Pierre Friedlingstein and Harrison-Prentice, {T I} and J Inoue and K Izumi and Marlon, {J R} and Janelle Stevenson and Simon Haberle and Geoffrey Hope",

year = "2012",

doi = "10.1029/2011GB004249",

language = "English",

volume = "26",

journal = "Global Biogeochemical Cycles",

issn = "0886-6236",

publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",

number = "4",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes

AU - Daniau, A.-L.

AU - Bartlein, P.J.

AU - Harrison, S. P.

AU - Prentice, I. Colin

AU - Brewer, S

AU - Friedlingstein, Pierre

AU - Harrison-Prentice, T I

AU - Inoue, J

AU - Izumi, K

AU - Marlon, J R

AU - Stevenson, Janelle

AU - Haberle, Simon

AU - Hope, Geoffrey

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - Climate is an important control on biomass burning, but the sensitivity of fire to changes in temperature and moisture balance has not been quantified. We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo- fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote-sensing observations of month-by-month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.

AB - Climate is an important control on biomass burning, but the sensitivity of fire to changes in temperature and moisture balance has not been quantified. We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo- fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote-sensing observations of month-by-month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.

U2 - 10.1029/2011GB004249

DO - 10.1029/2011GB004249

M3 - Article

VL - 26

JO - Global Biogeochemical Cycles

JF - Global Biogeochemical Cycles

SN - 0886-6236

IS - 4

ER -

Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes

Abstract

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