Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Brunei Darrussalam

Wee Koh

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle


    This paper investigates the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in Brunei Darussalam from 2003Q1 to 2014Q3 using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. Shocks are identified by imposing block exogeneity and long-run restrictions motivated by an open economy model that includes oil prices. The results show that oil price shocks account for only a small proportion of output fluctuations while productivity shocks have the largest share. Real exchange rate movements are largely driven by demand shocks while monetary shocks explain most of the variability in prices. Economic policies should focus on productivity improvement and capital investment to increase output in the long run, and the conduct of fiscal policy should take into account the impact on real exchange rate volatility.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)1285-1306
    JournalSingapore Economic Review
    Issue number5
    Publication statusPublished - 2018


    Dive into the research topics of 'Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Brunei Darrussalam'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

    Cite this