The Asian recession saw an increase in the volume of mainly manufactured Asian exports. Other things equal, this would have dis-advantaged the labour intensive end of northern (mainly USA and EU) manufacturing and hence the northern manufacturing workforce. Central to the crisis, however, was a redirection of investment away from Asia to the north, raising northern aggregate demand and hence employment in northern services. This paper examines the magnitudes of these two effects in a broader analysis of the real impacts of the Asian recession that is grounded in a global general equilibrium framework. Northern workers are found to be net beneficiaries in both the short and medium run.
|Published - 2004