The Coming Anarchy in Oceania? A Critique of the 'Africanisation of the South Pacific' Thesis

This article considers claims, in the wake of coups in Fiji and the Solomon Islands in 2000, that the Pacific region is experiencing 'African'-style difficulties. It argues that the Africanisation thesis is analytically weak, internally inconsistent and empirically flawed. Data covering GDP per capita, literacy, schooling and life expectancy are explored, as are indicators covering coups, insurgencies and military involvement in politics. Claimed similarities between the role played by 'ethnicity' in driving conflict are considered, as are comparisons of the role played by the post-colonial state. In conclusion, the article looks at the underlying causes of conflict, and potential for future instability, in Melanesia.