The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios

Warwick McKibbin, Roshen Fernando

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle


    COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally. The evolution of the disease and its economic impacts are highly uncertain making formulation of appropriate macroeconomic policy responses challenging. This paper explores seven plausible scenarios of COVID-19 and the macroeconomic outcomes using a global hybrid DSGE/CGE general equilibrium model. The results demonstrate that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short-run. Economic costs could be significantly avoided with greater investment in public health systems in all economies, particularly in economies where healthcare systems are less developed and population density is high.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)1-30
    JournalAsian Economic Papers
    Issue number2
    Publication statusPublished - 2021


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