While recent studies based on factor models with no-arbitrage restrictions provide evidence of a positive correlation between the nominal interest rates and real activity, there are few dynamic general equilibrium models which can successfully explain this positive relationship. This paper provides a dynamic general equilibrium model that naturally generates a positive correlation between the nominal interest rates and excess consumption. To this end, we focus on the partial observability of economic variables in a pure exchange economy and derive a closed form solution for two-factor affine term structure model. Our empirical analysis based on the results indeed indicates the positive correlation between the nominal interest rates and excess consumption. Moreover, the time series of the model-implied nominal yield captures many of the short- and long-run fluctuations in the actual data.
|Journal||Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money|
|Publication status||Published - 2021|