Why Russia is a threat to the international order

Almost a quarter of a century after the demise of the USSR, Russia is back on the world stage and in a familiar, threatening manner. Some are describing the resurgence of Russia as a return to a new Cold War; others are predicting a coming war with Russia, others that we’re already in a Cold War. What are we to make of all these serious and disturbing allegations? There can be no doubt that Putin’s Russia is now seeking to reassert itself as a major power. It seems set on a path to confrontation with the West and is now challenging the established post-World War II security order in Europe. This paper analyses Russia’s geopolitical ambitions, its military modernisation, the threat it poses to the international order and how the West should respond. It estimates the prospects for the Russian economy to assess how economic weakness might affect Russian behaviour. It concludes by addressing Moscow’s strategic priorities in the Asia–Pacific region and the implications of Russia’s rise for Australia.